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2022 Tony Predictions

With just under a week until the red carpet rolls out for the 2022 Tony Awards at Radio City Music Hall, it’s time to toss out my Tony predictions for what has been a uniquely enigmatic theatre season. So, get out your score cards, and when the big night comes, feel free to see how your choices stack up against mine and, of course, the official June 12th tally.

(Predicted winning picks are in bold print,)

TONY AWARDS: Musicals

a strange loop broadway

A Strange Loop. Photo by Marc J. Franklin.

Best Musical

Girl From The North Country

MJ

Mr. Saturday Night

Paradise Square

SIX: The Musical

A Strange Loop – (Should/will—no-objection here—win.)

Best Revival of a Musical

Caroline, or Change – (Should win—brilliant revival)

Company – (As the last Stephen Sondheim musical to play Broadway in his lifetime, this revisionary revival is the sentimental/homage favorite. Conceptually and emotionally, though, it’s Caroline, or Change that deserves the Tony nod.)

The Music Man

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Billy Crystal, Mr. Saturday Night

Myles Frost, MJ

Hugh Jackman, The Music Man

Rob McClure, Mrs. Doubtfire

Jaquel Spivey, A Strange Loop – (A revelation who earns Tony recognition every

performance.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Sharon D Clarke, Caroline, or Change (Neck and neck with Joaquina Kalukango of Paradise Square. Both are powerful performances and Caroline… has the drawback of having closed so many months ago. Still, Clarke should scoop up this one.)    

Carmen Cusack, Flying Over Sunset

Sutton Foster, The Music Man

Joaquina Kalukango, Paradise Square (neck and neck with Clarke—may win just because Caroline, or Change is so far in the season’s rearview mirror.)

Mare Winningham, Girl From The North Country

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Matt Doyle, Company (Maybe a little wishful thinking on my part, love the role and his  Jaimie-switch gender-switch interpretation of Amy. But like a few other categories, it’s a tough category all-round.)

Sidney DuPont, Paradise Square

Jared Grimes, Funny Girl

John-Andrew Morrison, A Strange Loop

A.J. Shively, Paradise Square

patti lupone katrina lenk company broadway

Patti LuPone and Katrina Lenk in Stephen Sondheim’s Company. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Jeannette Bayardelle, Girl From The North Country

Shoshana Bean, Mr. Saturday Night

Jayne Houdyshell, The Music Man

L Morgan Lee, A Strange Loop

Patti LuPone, Company (Dark horse nominee Jennifer Simard was so wackily brilliant, she may wind up bumping LuPone—already a two-time Tony recipient—from the  winner’s circle. If so, expect LuPone to applaud more enthusiastically than anyone.)

Jennifer Simard, Company

Best Direction of a Musical

Stephen Brackett, A Strange Loop

Marianne Elliott, Company (Stephen Brackett of A Strange Loop has some hand, but  Elliott, as a woman giving a feminist revamp to the production that came to Broadway with Sondheim’s stamp of approval, is clearly the frontrunner.)

Conor McPherson, Girl From The North Country

Lucy Moss & Jamie Armitage, SIX: The Musical

Christopher Wheeldon, MJ

Best Book of a Musical

Conor McPherson - Girl From The North Country 

Lynn Nottage - MJ

Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz & Babaloo Mandel - Mr. Saturday Night

Christina Anderson, Craig Lucas & Larry Kirwan - Paradise Square

Michael R. Jackson - A Strange Loop (A thumbs up in keeping with the show’s Pulitzer

Prize-winning status.)

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Flying Over Sunset - Music: Tom Kitt Lyrics: Michael Korie

Mr. Saturday Night - Music: Jason Robert Brown; Lyrics: Amanda Green

Paradise Square - Music: Jason Howland; Lyrics: Nathan Tysen & Masi Asare

SIX: The Musical - Music and Lyrics: Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss

A Strange Loop - Music & Lyrics: Michael R. Jackson (See Best Book of a Musical.)

paradise square

Paradise Square, Sidney DuPont, A.J. Shively, and ensemble ©Kevin Berne.

Best Choreography

Camille A. Brown, for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf

Warren Carlyle, The Music Man

Carrie-Anne Ingrouille, SIX: The Musical

Bill T. Jones, Paradise Square (I know, Jones is already a two-time Tony winner, but this baby showcases his choreographic versatility beautifully, as well as his iconic status among the other contenders. Wheeldon may scoop it up for MJ, but the most  memorable bits involve recreating Jackson’s legendary moves. Still, Wheeldon is a Brit and Tony voters still appreciate a U.K. pedigree.)

Christopher Wheeldon, MJ


TONY AWARDS: Plays

lehman trilogy

The Lehman Trilogy, photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Play

Clyde's - Author: Lynn Nottage

Hangmen - Author: Martin McDonagh

The Lehman Trilogy - Stefano Massini, Ben Power (The moment I saw it, it was clear: this was the one—perfect on every theatrical tier imaginable.)

The Minutes - Author: Tracy Letts

Skeleton Crew - Author: Dominique Morisseau

Best Revival of a Play

American Buffalo

for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf

How I Learned to Drive – (Competition is tough all around and especially from Trouble in Mind, but this production continues to haunt me and, I suspect, did the same for Tony voters.)

Take Me Out

Trouble in Mind

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Simon Russell Beale, The Lehman Trilogy – (Looking at Beale and his costars  theatregoers are presented with a kind of performance trifecta. Rather that cancel each other out in the category, they stand alone as formidable competitors and Beale absolutely rates my vote.) 

Adam Godley, The Lehman Trilogy

Adrian Lester, The Lehman Trilogy

David Morse, How I Learned to Drive

Sam Rockwell, American Buffalo

Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Lackawanna Blues

David Threlfall, Hangmen

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Gabby Beans, The Skin of Our Teeth

LaChanze, Trouble in Mind

Ruth Negga, Macbeth

Deirdre O'Connell, Dana H. (Long shot, I know, but too brilliant to ignore—hopefully the Tony voters feel the same way. But if I’m jumping the shark here, look to former Tony winners LaChanze and Mary-Louise Parker to face off for the trophy.)

Mary-Louise Parker, How I Learned to Drive

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Alfie Allen, Hangmen

Chuck Cooper, Trouble in Mind

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Take Me Out (Denis O’Hare set the Tony precedent in the role in the original production and Ferguson is way worthy. All the same, I wouldn’t  have a problem if his castmate Jesse Williams won.)

Ron Cephas Jones, Clyde's

Michael Oberholtzer, Take Me Out

Jesse Williams, Take Me Out

Phylicia Rashad, Skeleton Crew

Phylicia Rashad in Skeleton Crew. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Uzo Aduba, Clyde's

Rachel Dratch, POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive

Kenita R. Miller, for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf

Phylicia Rashad, Skeleton Crew – (Rashad in a multi-layered performance sans vanity and pretension…another choice that is fairly self-evident. Comedically, though, I did love the off-the-rails lunacy of both Rachel Dratch and Julie White  in POTUS.)

Julie White, POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive

Kara Young, Clyde's

Best Direction of a Play

Lileana Blain-Cruz, The Skin of Our Teeth

Camille A. Brown, for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf

Sam Mendes, The Lehman Trilogy – (Complex storyline, multiple characters, simple set pieces and three actors embodying dozens of characters…a directorial maze gloriously executed.)

Neil Pepe, American Buffalo

Les Waters, Dana H.

tony statuette

Marking 75 years of excellence on Broadway, The Tony Awards, hosted by Oscar winner Ariana DeBose, will take place LIVE from Radio City Music Hall in New York City on Sunday, June 12th, 2022 (8-11pm) on CBS, and streaming live and on demand on Paramount+. Coverage is slated to begin at 7-8pm with exclusive content streaming only on Paramount+. The 2022 Tony Awards are presented by The Broadway League and the American Theatre Wing.

About the Author

City Guide Theatre Editor Griffin Miller moved to New York to pursue an acting/writing career in the 1980s after graduating magna cum laude from Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio. Since then, she has written for The New York Times, For the Bride, Hotels, and a number of other publications, mostly in the areas of travel and performance arts. She currently is the theatre editor for all NYMetroParents publications. An active member of The New York Travel Writers Association, she is also a playwright and award-winning collage artist. In addition, she sits on the board of The Lewis Carroll Society of North America. Griffin is married to Richard Sandomir, a reporter for The New York Times.

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